FT

Chernomorets Novorossijsk

11/29 00:00

2 - 1

Shinnik Yaroslavl

11/29

00:00

FT

Chernomorets Novorossijsk

2

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1

Arsenal vs Bayern Munich Champions Leagu

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  Last night, the draw at FIFA headquarters in Zurich, Switzerland, sealed the fate of several European teams that fans have been watching closely, instantly flipping their World Cup destinies based on their luck. Many media outlets call Italy's draw a "great draw," but I, Wolf Uncle, won't comment on whether it's truly a good one. Having watched the World Cup for many years, I have a metaphor: each team's match is like sitting at a gambling table—winners don't leave until the last moment, and victory or defeat is hard to predict. Italy avoided their previous nemeses, Sweden and North Macedonia. But does that mean no new troubles? Sweden, however, is firmly stuck in the "group of death," where this fight-for-survival battle is filled with unknown cruelty from the moment the draw was made.

  First, let's clarify the most watched groups: 16 teams are divided into 4 groups for head-to-head battles, with only the final winner in each group securing a World Cup spot: Group A: Italy vs. Northern Ireland, Wales vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina; Group B: Ukraine vs. Sweden, Poland vs. Albania; Group C: Turkey vs. Romania, Slovakia vs. Kosovo; Group D: Denmark vs. North Macedonia, Czech Republic vs. Ireland. The highest attention is on the Azzurri and Sweden with their high-value attacking line.

  For ans of the Azzurri, this draw is practically a "heaven-sent good draw." Although it's called the best possible, it's still challenging; to get the ticket, Italy must win both matches. These two games will decide life or death. As the FIFA-ranked 12th former World Cup champions, Italy's first step in Group A is to overcome Northern Ireland—if they win, they'll face the winner of Wales and Bosnia and Herzegovina; but if they lose, they'll face the shame of missing three consecutive World Cups—a record they can't afford. Losing even one match means Italy misses the 2026 World Cup, marking three straight absences! In the past 22 World Cups, Italy has participated 18 times, but since the 2006 Germany World Cup final, where Materazzi's insult enraged Zidane, Italy hasn't won a knockout match in nearly 20 years and hasn't even played one—unbelievable! Is this some kind of curse on Italy?

  Some might say, "Italy beating Northern Ireland is a sure win?" That's logical but not guaranteed. OPTA's data provides some comfort: Italy has 6 wins and 2 draws in their last 8 matches against Northern Ireland, with 7 clean sheets in the most recent ones. But don't forget, this is a must-win survival game—the beauty of football is its unpredictability. Just look at Ireland's shocking start, winning their last two games against Portugal and staging a comeback away against Hungary. Soboslai's tears—are they not proof of football's cruelty?

  The words of Adam McKendry from the Belfast Telegraph hit the nail: "Italy is still a top team despite fluctuations, the worst opponent Northern Ireland could face; but for Italy, any slip-up could lead to utter ruin."

  If Italy gets past Northern Ireland, the next opponent won't be easy. Whether it's Wales, whom they've beaten 8 times in 8 encounters (1-0 win in the 2021 European Championship group stage), or Bosnia and Herzegovina, with 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in 6 meetings (1-0 win in last year's friendly), Italy has historical advantages, but in playoff single-elimination, advantages don't equal victory. Since their 2006 World Cup win, Italy's road has been downhill: group stage exits in 2010 and 2014, and direct absences in 2018 and 2022. Under Gattuso's leadership, this Azzurri team really can't afford to lose anymore.

  If Italy is "happy with a hint of worry," then Sweden is "adding insult to injury." Placed in Group B, they must first battle world-ranked 28th Ukraine, and if they win, face Lewandowski-led Poland (world-ranked 31)—this is basically welding the "group of death" label on their faces.

  No one denies Sweden's lineup: their total squad value is 518 million euros, second only to Italy among the 16 playoff teams, with Premier League stars like Isak, Kulusevski, and Elanga familiar to fans. But their recent form is poor: 0 wins in 6 European Championship qualifiers, only qualifying for the playoffs via the Nations League, and now as a fourth-seeded team, they have to beat two higher-ranked teams—an almost impossible task.

  Even more regrettable is Sweden's World Cup curse: since the 2006 Germany World Cup, they've only qualified for the 2018 Russia World Cup, and missed the last Qatar World Cup. Now with this death draw, the chances of missing two in a row are skyrocketing—those Swedish stars battling in the Premier League might see their World Cup dreams shatter in the playoffs.

  From Italy's "do-or-die battle" to Sweden's "troubled fate," this playoff is full of dramatic tension from the draw onward. Northern Ireland may be seen as the underdog in Group A, but as the News Letter pointed out, their only edge is beating Italy in 1958— in the football world, there's no absolute strong or weak, only unbreakable spirit.

  Every match ahead is a matter of life and death. Can Italy break their streak of absences? Can Lewandowski lead Poland further? Does Sweden's golden generation still have a chance? Leave your predictions in the comments, and let's follow this most brutal and passionate playoff together!

• Betting Market (1X2)

  Betting Market

  (1X2)

  • 1
  • X
  • 2

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    1X2

    1.50

    3.30

    3.30

  The odds listed in this article were calculated at the time of writing and are subject to change. Please consult your bookmaker for the latest information.

  Betting Market (Handicap)

  Betting Market

  (Handicap)

  • placeholder
  • Home
  • placeholder
  • Away

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    Handicap

    +1/1.5

    1.98

    -1/1.5

    1.80

  The odds listed in this article were calculated at the time of writing and are subject to change. Please consult your bookmaker for the latest information.

  Betting Market (Goals)

  Betting Market

  (Goals)

  • Over
  • Under

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    Goals

    2.5/3

    1.88

    1.78

  The odds listed in this article were calculated at the time of writing and are subject to change. Please consult your bookmaker for the latest information.

  Betting Market (Corners)

  Betting Market

  (Corners)

  • Over
  • Under

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    Corners

    9.5/10

    1.95

    1.93

  The odds listed in this article were calculated at the time of writing and are subject to change. Please consult your bookmaker for the latest information.

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